Visualizing Uncertainties in Ensemble Wildfire Forecast Simulations

Abstract

Wildfire poses substantial risks to our health, environment, and economy. Studying wildfire is challenging due to its complex inter- action with the atmosphere dynamics and the terrain. Researchers have employed ensemble simulations to study the relationship be- tween variables and mitigate uncertainties in unpredictable initial conditions. However, many domain scientists are unaware of the advanced visualization tools available for conveying uncertainty. To bring some uncertainty visualization techniques, we build an interactive visualization system that utilizes a band-depth-based method that provides a statistical summary and visualization for fire front contours from the ensemble. We augment the visualiza- tion system with capabilities to study wildfires as a dynamic system. In this paper, We demonstrate how our system can support domain scientists in studying fire spread patterns, identifying outlier simu- lations, and navigating to interesting instances based on a summary of events.